North Texas

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	235.0
Current RPI:	235
Expected SOS:	228
Current SOS:	228
Current Record:	13-17
Expected Record:	13-17
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-6
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	186
Expected OOC SOS:	170

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-17	235.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	A	86-67	L	0%
11-16	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	H	90-78	W	100%
11-20	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	H	63-75	L	0%
11-24	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	A	63-49	L	0%
11-27	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	82-77	W	100%
11-30	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	A	82-72	L	0%
12-2	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	65-60	L	0%
12-6	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	79-76	W	100%
12-9	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	85-47	W	100%
12-16	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	83-86	W	100%
12-20	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	75-63	L	0%
12-28	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	62-63	W	100%
12-30	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	71-72	W	100%
1-4	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	68-70	L	0%
1-6	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	60-63	L	0%
1-13	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	78-85	W	100%
1-18	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	66-65	L	0%
1-20	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	85-78	L	0%
1-25	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	H	59-53	W	100%
1-27	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	69-67	W	100%
2-3	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	74-70	W	100%
2-8	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	60-67	W	100%
2-10	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	79-73	L	0%
2-15	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	H	94-102	L	0%
2-17	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	72-74	L	0%
2-22	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	69-68	L	0%
2-24	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	74-54	L	0%
3-1	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	80-62	W	100%
3-3	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	66-68	L	0%
3-7	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	N	62-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Texas	CUSA	26.17	26.17	43.38	43.38	-3.46	-3.46
UTSA	CUSA	4.13	4.13	57.14	57.14	0.59	0.59
Rice	CUSA	4.09	4.09	18.52	18.52	-2.57	-2.57
UTEP	CUSA	4.06	4.06	32.14	32.14	-1.45	-1.45
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	4.03	4.03	30.77	30.77	-1.55	-1.55
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	4.03	4.03	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
FIU	CUSA	4.00	4.00	37.04	37.04	-1.04	-1.04
Southern Miss	CUSA	2.50	2.50	37.93	37.93	-0.60	-0.60
Old Dominion	CUSA	2.47	2.47	77.42	77.42	1.36	1.36
Marshall	CUSA	2.41	2.41	68.75	68.75	0.91	0.91
UAB	CUSA	2.41	2.41	60.00	60.00	0.48	0.48
Western Kentucky	CUSA	2.41	2.41	68.75	68.75	0.90	0.90
Charlotte	CUSA	2.36	2.36	14.81	14.81	-1.66	-1.66
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	2.35	2.35	75.86	75.86	1.22	1.22
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	1.83	1.83	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.81	1.81	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
UT Arlington	SB	1.75	1.75	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.75	1.75	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
Grambling St.	SWAC	1.75	1.75	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Nebraska	B10	1.72	1.72	67.74	67.74	0.61	0.61
Oklahoma	B12	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Indiana St.	MVC	1.72	1.72	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Georgetown	BE	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.67	1.67	33.33	33.33	-0.56	-0.56
San Diego	WCC	1.67	1.67	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	83.33	83.33	0.13	0.13
Texas St.	SB	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.17	0.17	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Tech	B12	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
James Madison	CAA	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.16	0.16	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	8.00	8.00	-0.13	-0.13
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.14	0.14	30.77	30.77	-0.06	-0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	9.68	9.68	-0.11	-0.11
Georgia St.	SB	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Appalachian St.	SB	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	15.62	15.62	-0.08	-0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
BYU	WCC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
New Orleans	Slnd	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.09	0.09	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01